Posted by Exile on February 24, 2007
If you are a follower of Bill Roggio’s “Fourth Rail”, you will have noticed todays report from him on the expansion by the Taleban into Western Pakistan. Musharraf has given up on Waziristan and now other provinces are falling under the weight of Taleban terror threats. Businesses and schools are closing, women and girls are being forced to wear the veil, the business of terrorising the local population has begun.
The fact is, that western Pakistan has long been a hideout and safe enclave for not just the Taleban, but also Al-Queda. Could it be, that the two have joined forces?
Undoubtedly, in my opinion. They have the same agenda. Perhaps on different levels, but none the less, equal. The Taleban wants local control, Al-Queda wants global control.
Strategically though, they are not in the best of positions. The Taleban were driven out of Afghanistan relatively quickly. The reason they can attack our forces in Afghanistan is simply that they can disappear over the border to Pakistan again to relative safety.
Musharraf must be aware that he is not just losing political ground here, he is also losing territory. Sovereign Pakistani territory. And he is losing it to a bunch of thugs. That must be embarrassing for him. Despite his political differences with Ahmed Karzhai in Afghanistan, he must also be aware that they have a common enemy here.
Would it be unthinkable, that the two put their heads together and decided to lay their differences aside, join forces and squeeze the border area until it burst?
Attacking the Taleban and Al-Queda from both sides simultaneously would be the only way to beat them. Helped along by coalition forces, the whole operation could be over in weeks.
Simply allowing our troops to cross the border into Pakistan would mean an end to the hit and run attacks in Afghanistan and would allow us to chase them all the way home, or directly into the arms of the Pakistani army. If Musharraf truly is the ally he declares to be in the GWOT, then how could this not be a viable proposition?
Unfortunately that isn’t going to happen in the near future. Musharraf is still keen on the idea, that he can bargain a cease-fire or a deal with the Taleban that will stop the insurgent violence and take-over of his land. He has been on this course for some time now, but despite earlier efforts and agreements, the Talebs continue to break the treaties. Musharraf’s latest move is to encourage the government opposition, which is supportive of the Taleban, to enter into new negotiations with them. Not the best policy to follow, if you ask me. As Bill Roggio points out;
“The ‘peace deals’ have resulted in the establishment of Taliban and al-Qaeda sanctuaries”.
I am sure, that the Taleban-supportive opposition is equally supported by the Taleban. When all is said and done, they both seek the demise of Musharraf. Politically if not physically.
Sooner or later, Musharraf is going to have to deal with the Taleban and Al-Queda in his own back yard and the opposition on his own back-benches. I do not believe he can do it alone.
And if he fails, how long will it be before these animals in their mountain cages, supported by the present governmental opposition, have a hold on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons?
Think about that for a while.
Link: The Fourth Rail.